ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
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MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/10/08 0210Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-11/12 0200Z KUSSELSON
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LOCATION...MONTANA...WYOMING...IDAHO...WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
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ATTN WFOS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...
ATTN RFCS...MBRFC...CBRFC...NWRFC...
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EVENT...SNOW MONTANA...IDAHO...WYOMING...HVY RAIN W SOUTH DAKOTA...
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...BIG PICTURE FORCING SHOWED DEEPENING VORT
TROUGH DROPPING SSE THRU FAR WESTERN MONTANA/E IDAHO AS PER NOTICEABLE
DARKENING ON WATER VAPOR LOOP S IDAHO.  ON THE FLIP SIDE BIG PICTURE
ALSO SHOWED MOIST PLUME FROM MO/IA/NE BACK TO S MONTANA...WY...
E IDAHO WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON 850MB/700MB WINDS PROVIDING A
CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.   CLOUD TOP HAS
ORGANIZED AHEAD OF VORT TROUGH TO PRODUCE LOW ELEV RAIN AND HIGH ELEV
SNOW BURSTS THAT CAN QUICKLY PRODUCE AN INCH PER HR ESPECIALLY HIGH ELEVS.
COOLING ALOFT WITH QUICKLY CHANGE ANY LOW ELEVS SNOWS IN THE AREA AS COLD
POOL ASSOCIATED WITH VORT TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT SE. THIS PRECIP AREA
WILL MOVE EAST AND SE FROM IDAHO/W WY/S CENTRAL MONTANA OVERNIGHT.
TO THE EAST...MAIN CONCERN BEFORE COLDER AIR MOVES IN IS ACROSS W SD
WITH HVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FF POTENTIAL.  SEMI COMMA/
BAROCLINIC LEAF PRODUCING BURSTS OF HVY RAIN...SOME TRAINING NE WY THRU
SW AND W CENTRAL SD.  ONE LAST BURST OF HVY RAIN NOW MOVING ACROSS
NE WY TO COME THRU W SD DURING THE NEXT 4-6HRS.  WEAK DIFFLUENCE W SD
ALONG WITH WEAK POLAR JET AXIS N UT INTO SD HELPING TO ADD UP TO ALSO
DESTABILZING THE ATMOSP AHEAD OF INTENSIFYING VORT MOVING THRU NE WY AND
WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND PW MOISTURE CLOSE TO THE 75TH PERCENTILE
CREEPING NORTH FROM W NEBRASKA (0.75" GPS NE NEBRASKA)...CONCERNS
GENUINE FOR HEIGHTEN FF THREAT IN W SOUTH DAKOTA FIRST PART OF NIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 4591 11312 4495 10489 4242 10503 4344 11216
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