WWPS20 KNES 170420 SATELLITE WEATHER BULLETIN SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN FY2C VIS/IRDAY . APRIL 17 2006 0300Z . 11.5S 149.9E T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS MONICA (23P) . PAST POSITION....9.5S 151.2E 16/1333Z IRNIGHT 8.6S 152.4E 16/0233Z VIS/IRDAY . REMARKS....MTSAT DATA OUTAGE SO USING FY2C IMAGERY INSTEAD. MONICA HAS INTENSIFIED RAPIDLY PAST 24 HOURS. USING CDO PATTERN WITH 1.5 DEGREE WIDE IRREGULAR CDO AND .5 FOR BANDING GIVES DT=3.0. FY2C SHOWING VERY COLD TOPS BUT CALIBRATION PROBLEMS PERSIST AT COLD END. SSMI PASS FROM 2158Z SHOWS GOOD CONVECTIVE BANDING WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF AN EYE TRYING TO EMERGE. EXPERIMENTAL CIRA AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE AT 0130Z GAVE T2.5. FINAL T-NUMBER CONSTRAINTS COME INTO PLAY HERE DURING 1ST 24 HOURS OF DEVELOPMENT SO FT=2.5. . POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NMI. . THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 24/1000Z. . FOR AREAL DISPLAY OF RAINFALL POTENTIAL SEE OUR WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/TROP/TRAP-IMG.HTML ALL LOWER CASE LETTERS EXCEPT PS/TROP . RUMINSKI . NNNN