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Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Guidance Product

Developed by the Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch at CIRA

Cooperative Research Program | Office of Research and Applications/Center for Satellite Applications and Research


West Pacific Basin

 

Products Last Updated 2013 APR 23 06UTC

96-Hour Loop of Real-time Formation Probability

Real-Time Climatological Anomaly
Probability of TC Formation within 24 Hours
850 hPa Circulation (kt) TC Formation Threshold
> -1.71kt
Percent Pixels Colder than -40°C TC Formation Threshold
> 3.5%
850-200 hPa Vertical Shear (kt) TC Formation Threshold
< 37.9kt
Vertical Instability (°C) TC Formation Threshold
> 1.64°C
Cloud-cleared Water Vapor Brightness Temperature (°C) TC Formation Threshold
< -27.8°C
850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-5 s-1) TC Formation Threshold
< 0.525
MSLP (hPa)
Reynolds SST (°C)

Subbasin Areas

Time Series Products on Subbasins

  Formation Probability 850 hPa Circulation Percent GOES Pixels < -40°C 850-200 hPa Vertical Shear Vertical Instability Cloud-cleared GOES Brightness Temperature 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (10-5 s-1) MSLP Anom Reynolds SST
NW Pacific I
NW Pacific II
NW Pacific III
NW Pacific IV
NW Pacific V
SW Pacific

 


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