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Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Product

Developed by the
Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch at CIRA

Cooperative Research Program | Office of Research and Applications/Center for Satellite Applications and Research

July 1, 2008:  The Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability (TCFP) product has been updated (see NEW FEATURES pdf file - 18Kb).  However, promotion to operational status for TCFP will be delayed until temporary testing at the NESDIS Satellite Environmental Processing System (SATEPS) is complete (est: mid-August 2008).  Until then, the TCFP will run as a pre-operational product with 1) limited, 8 hours x 5 days support and 2) a backup system located offsite at CIRA.  In the case of a product outage, a backup website is available at http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/gparm/index.asp.

East Pacific Basin

 

Products Last Updated 2012 SEP 25 18UTC

96-Hour Loop of Real-time Formation Probability Real-Time Climatological Anomaly
Probability of TC Formation within 24 Hours
850 hPa Circulation (kt) TC Formation Threshold
> -2.41kt
Percent Pixels Colder than -40°C TC Formation Threshold
> 4.2%
850-200 hPa Vertical Shear (kt) TC Formation Threshold
< 29.4kt
Vertical Instability (°C) TC Formation Threshold
> -3.14°C
Cloud-cleared Water Vapor Brightness Temperature (°C) TC Formation Threshold
< -23.1°C
Horizontal Divergence (x10-5 s-1) TC Formation Threshold
< 0.691

Subbasin Areas

Time Series Products on Subbasins

  Formation Probability 850 hPa Circulation Percent GOES Pixels < -40°C 850-200 hPa Vertical Shear Vertical Instability Cloud-cleared GOES Brightness Temperature 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (10-5 s-1)
Central Pacific
Eastern Pacific

 

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