FVXX21 KWBC 150007 VOLCANIC ASH ADVISORY STATEMENT ISSUED 0010 UTC 15 FEB 2000 BY THE WASHINGTON VAAC . TUNGURAHUA 00-192 ECUADOR 0128S 7826W . BACKGROUND: TUNGURAHUA ECUADOR (1502-08) SUMMIT HEIGHT 16480 FT (5023 M) . SOURCES OF INFORMATION: GOES-8 IMAGERY. THE GEOPHYSICAL INSTITUTE IN QUITO. 15/0000 UTC AVIATION MODEL WINDS. . ERUPTION DETAILS: LAST EXPLOSION REPORTED AT 1250 LOCAL TIME. . DETAILS OF ASH: LATEST SINGLE GOES-8 IMAGE AT 2345 UTC SHOWS NO SIGNS OF ANY RESIDUAL ASH FROM THE EARLIER ERUPTION. HOWEVER TUNGURAHUA REMAINS IN A VERY ACTIVE STATE AND COULD PRODUCE ASH AT ANYTIME. THE LACK OF IMAGERY DUE TO RAPID SCAN OPERATIONS MAKES IT IMPOSSIBLE TO TRACK THE EARLIER ASH CLOUD...THEREFORE THE VAFTAD MODEL OUTPUT SHOULD BE USED TO DETERMINE CURRENT ASH LOCATION. THIS EXTRAPOLATION WILL PLACE THE ASH CLOUD NEAR 0204S 8000W. THE CURRENT RAPID SCAN OPS FOR GOES-8 IS SCHEDULED TO END AT 15/0026 UTC AND ROUTINE MONITORING WILL RESUME. . TRAJECTORY: UPPER AIR PATTERNS SUGGEST ANY ASH AT OR BELOW FL250 TO MOVE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. . OUTLOOK: SEE SIGMETS AND VAFTAD. . THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 15/0600 UTC. . REAL TIME SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH THIS AND OTHER VOLCANIC ASH ADVISORY STATEMENTS OFTEN ACCOMPANIED BY A MAP DEPICTING ASH LOCATION ARE AVAILABLE AT INTERNET URL ADDRESS http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/VAAC/washington.html (all lower case except /VAAC/) . PLEASE REFER TO SIGMETS FOR CURRENT WARNINGS. . HUGHES - NOAA/NESDIS/SAB . NNNN