FVXX20 KWBC 071750 VOLCANIC ASH ADVISORY ISSUED: 2002JAN07/1750Z VAAC: WASHINGTON . VOLCANO: TUNGURAHUA 1502-08 LOCATION: 0128S 7826W AREA: ECUADOR . SUMMIT ELEVATION: 16480 FT (5023 M) . ADVISORY NUMBER: 2002/012 . INFORMATION SOURCE: GUAYAQUIL SIGMET 02. GOES-8 VISIBLE/INFRARED/MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY. 07/1800Z UPPER WINDS FORECAST FROM THE 07/1200Z AVIATION MODEL. . ERUPTION DETAILS: ASH OBSERVED BY GEOPHYSICAL INSTITUTE TO FL240. . DETAILS OF ASH CLOUD: ASH COULD NOT BE SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715Z DUE TO CONVECTIVE DEBRIS COVERING THE AREA AROUND THE VOLCANO. ASH WAS OBSERVED TO FL240 OVER THE VOLCANO. HOWEVER DUE TO THE CONVECTION AROUND THE VOLCANO...VERTICAL AIR MOVEMENTS COULD CHANGE THE LEVEL OF ASH DRAMATICALLY IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. . TRAJECTORY: UPPER AIR PATTERNS SUGGEST ASH AT OR NEAR THE SUMMIT WOULD MOVE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. . OUTLOOK: SEE SIGMETS. . NEXT ADVISORY: NO FURTHER ADVISORIES. . TURK/HUGHES/STREETT . NNNN