FVXX20 KNES 101941
VOLCANIC ASH ADVISORY
ISSUED: 20060910/1940Z   VAAC: WASHINGTON

VOLCANO: SOUFRIERE HILLS 1600-05
LOCATION: N1642 W06210   AREA: W_INDIES

SUMMIT ELEVATION: 3002 FT (915 M)

ADVISORY NUMBER: 2006/509

INFORMATION SOURCE: GOES-12. GFS WINDS.
MONTSERRAT OBSERVATORY. 

ERUPTION DETAILS: CONTINUOUS ASH AND GASES.

OBS ASH DATE/TIME: 10/1915Z

OBS ASH CLOUD: SFC/FL100 N1657 W06134 - N1635
W06129 - N1640 W06213 - N1647 W06213 - N1657
W06134 MOVING E 5 KNOTS. 

FCST ASH CLOUD +6H: 11/0130Z SFC/FL100 N1643
W06210 - N1637 W06132 - N1615 W06138 - N1638
W06214 - N1643 W06210 

FCST ASH CLOUD +12H: 11/0730Z NOT AVBL.

FCST ASH CLOUD +18H: 11/1330Z NOT AVBL.

REMARKS: THE MONTSERRAT VOLCANO OBSERVATORY IS
NOW INDICATING ACTIVITY HAS FURTHER INCREASED
SINCE THIS MORNING.  ASH IS NOW ESTIMATED TO
FL100 AND ITS POSSIBLE IT COULD GO EVEN HIGHER
BASED ON THE LATEST REPORTS.  ASH IS MOVING EAST
AT 5 KNOTS.  ONLY A +06 HOUR FORECAST IS PROVIDED
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE OF THE
MODELS.  A FAINT HOTSPOT CAN BE SEEN IN
MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY. ...KIBLER

NEXT ADVISORY: WILL BE ISSUED BY 20060911/0145Z

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