FVXX20 KNES 191726
VOLCANIC ASH ADVISORY
ISSUED: 20070219/1726Z   VAAC: WASHINGTON

VOLCANO: SOUFRIERE HILLS 1600-05
LOCATION: N1642 W06210   AREA: W_INDIES

SUMMIT ELEVATION: 3002 FT (915 M)

ADVISORY NUMBER: 2007/133

INFORMATION SOURCE: GOES-12. GFS WINDS.
RADIOSONDE. 

ERUPTION DETAILS: ONGOING ASH EMISSIONS

OBS ASH DATE/TIME: 19/1702Z

OBS ASH CLOUD: SFC/FL120 N1641 W06211 - N1637
W06206 - N1628 W06207 - N1635 W06220 - N1641
W06211 MOVING S 5 KNOTS. 

FCST ASH CLOUD +6H: 19/2300Z NOT AVBL.

FCST ASH CLOUD +12H: 20/0500Z NOT AVBL.

FCST ASH CLOUD +18H: 20/1100Z NOT AVBL.

REMARKS: ALTHOUGH A FEW HOURS AGO ASH WAS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT IT IS NOW MOVING PRIMARILY SOUTHWARD.  THE
DIRECTION CHANGE IS NOT BELIEVED TO REFLECT A
SUBSTANTIAL ASH HEIGHT CHANGE BUT RATHER IS A
RESULT OF THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CHANGING
DIRECTION.  THE WINDS ARE NOT WELL CAPTURED BY
THE MODELS AND THEREFORE ASH FORECASTS WOULD BE
UNRELIABLE.   A SUBSTANTIAL AND RAPID CHANGE  IN
ASH DIRECTION  COULD EASILY OCCUR IN THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.  ASH IS MODERATELY DENSE. ...

NEXT ADVISORY: WILL BE ISSUED BY 20070219/2330Z

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