FVXX20 KNES 121911
VOLCANIC ASH ADVISORY
ISSUED: 20070312/1911Z   VAAC: WASHINGTON

VOLCANO: SOUFRIERE HILLS 1600-05
LOCATION: N1642 W06210   AREA: W_INDIES

SUMMIT ELEVATION: 3002 FT (915 M)

ADVISORY NUMBER: 2007/216

INFORMATION SOURCE: PIARCO MWO. GOES-12. GFS
WINDS. RADIOSONDE. 

ERUPTION DETAILS: ONGOING ASH AND GAS EMISSIONS.

OBS ASH DATE/TIME: 12/1845Z

OBS ASH CLOUD: SFC/FL100 15NM WIDE LINE BETWEEN
N1707 W06302 - N1642 W06213. ASH IS MOVING NW
10-15 KNOTS. 

FCST ASH CLOUD +6H: 13/0100Z SFC/FL100 15NM WIDE
LINE BETWEEN N1725 W06237 - N1643 W06214. 

FCST ASH CLOUD +12H: 13/0700Z SFC/FL100 15NM WIDE
LINE BETWEEN N1723 W06253 - N1643 W06214. 

FCST ASH CLOUD +18H: 13/1300Z NOT AVBL.

REMARKS: WEATHER CLOUDS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION AROUND THE VOLCANO AT THE PRESENT TIME BUT
A 10-15 NMI WIDE PLUME OF THIN ASH EXTENDS ABOUT
35 NMI TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SUMMIT BEFORE IT
IS TOO DISPERSED TO OBSERVE.  THE MODEL FORECASTS
THE WINDS AT FL100 TO SHIFT MORE TO THE NORTH
DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS.  THIS APPEARS TO BE
REASONABLE BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND
12 HOURS IS LOW. ...BALDWIN

NEXT ADVISORY: WILL BE ISSUED BY 20070313/0115Z

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