FVXX20 KWBC 010730
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VOLCANIC ASH ADVISORY STATEMENT
ISSUED 0725 UTC 01 APR 1999 BY THE WASHINGTON VAAC
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SOUFRIERE HILLS 99-078    WEST INDIES 16.72N 62.18W  
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BACKGROUND:    SOUFRIERE HILLS  MONTSERRAT (1600-05)
               SUMMIT HEIGHT  3000 FT (915 M)
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SOURCES OF INFORMATION: MONTSERRAT VOLCANO OBSERVATORY.  0000 UTC
GUADELOUPE RADIOSONDE. METEOSAT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0600 UTC.  GOES-8 INFRARED AND MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AT
0645 UTC. 
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ERUPTION DETAILS: ERUPTION AT ABOUT 0445 UTC
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DETAILS OF ASH CLOUD: NO ASH CAN BE DISCERNED IN LOOPING METEOSAT
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0600 UTC OR IN THE 0645 UTC GOES-8 INFRARED AND MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY.  THE SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES
SHOW A POSSIBLE AREA OF ASH ABOUT 60 KM (32 NMI) EAST OF MONTSERRAT
AND ANOTHER POSSIBLE AREA OF ASH JUST SOUTH OF THE ISLAND AND THESE
LOCATIONS ARE CONSISTENT WITH NUMERICAL ASH FORECASTS.  HOWEVER
THESE AREAS ARE NEVERTHELESS PROBABLY METEOROLOGICAL CLOUDS NOT ASH. 
DUE TO THE GREAT ANGLE OF VIEWING FROM THE METEOSAT SATELLITE AND
THE AVAILABILITY OF ONLY ONE GOES IMAGE AFTER THE ECLIPSE IT IS
QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THERE IS ASH FROM THE VOLCANO THAT CANNOT BE
SEEN IN THIS IMAGERY SO CAUTION IS STILL ADVISED.
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TRAJECTORY: UPPER AIR PATTERNS SUGGEST THAT ASH BETWEEN FL100 AND
FL300 WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST.  BETWEEN FL100 AND
FL200 ASH WILL MOVE AT 10 TO 25 KNOTS AND BETWEEN FL200 AND FL300
ASH WILL MOVE AT 25 TO 55 KNOTS.  
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THIS AND OTHER VOLCANIC ASH ADVISORY STATEMENTS OFTEN ACCOMPANIED BY
A MAP DEPICTING ASH LOCATION ARE AVAILABLE AT INTERNET URL ADDRESS
www.ssd.noaa.gov/VAAC/messages.html
(all lower case except /VAAC/)
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OUTLOOK: SEE SIGMETS.
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THE NEXT MESSAGE WILL BE ISSUED BY 01/1330 UTC.
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PLEASE REFER TO SIGMETS FOR CURRENT WARNINGS.
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