FVXX22 KWBC 092123 . VOLCANIC ASH ADVISORY STATEMENT ISSUED 2123 UTC 09 NOV 1999 BY THE WASHINGTON VAAC . SOUFRIERE HILLS 99-257 WEST INDIES 16.7N 62.2W . BACKGROUND: SOUFRIERE HILLS MONTSERRAT (1600-05) SUMMIT HEIGHT 3000 FT (915 M) . SOURCES OF INFORMATION: MONTSERRAT VOLCANO OBSERVATORY...GOES-8 VISIBLE INFRARED AND MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY...12 UTC AVIATION MODEL UPPER-AIR SOUNDING DATA. . ERUPTION DETAILS: INITIAL ERUPTION OCCURRED AT 09/2112 . DETAILS OF ASH CLOUD: THE MONTSERRAT VOLCANO OBSERVATORY HAS INDICATED AN EXPLOSION AT THE SOUFRIERE HILLS VOLCANO. ASH IS ESTIMATED TO BE REACHING FL200. HOWEVER THEY REPORTED THAT THE ERUPTION IS STILL OCCURRING AND THAT THE ASH MAY GO TO A HIGHER ALTITUDE. SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL SOON BE ABLE TO CONFIRM THE EXACT NATURE OF THE ERUPTION. . TRAJECTORY: ASH FROM THE SUMMIT TO FL100 SHOULD MOVE TO THE WEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. HOWEVER THE ASH FROM FL100 TO FL200 SHOULD BE MUCH MORE VARIABLE WITH A GENERAL MOTION TO THE EAST AT UP TO 5 KNOTS. . THIS AND OTHER VOLCANIC ASH ADVISORY STATEMENTS OFTEN ACCOMPANIED BY A MAP DEPICTING ASH LOCATION ARE AVAILABLE AT INTERNET URL ADDRESS www.ssd.noaa.gov/VAAC/messages.html . OUTLOOK: SEE SIGMETS. . THIS NEXT MESSAGE WILL BE ISSUED BY 10/0330 UTC. IF THERE IS AN ASH CLOUD EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THEN A NEW VAAS ALONG WITH A GRAPHIC WILL ISSUED MUCH SOONER. . PLEASE REFER TO SIGMETS FOR CURRENT WARNINGS. . ORRISON . NNNN