FVXX21 KWBC 202000
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VOLCANIC ASH ADVISORY STATEMENT 
ISSUED 1950 UTC 20 OCTOBER 1999 BY THE WASHINGTON VAAC 
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TUNGURAHUA 99-010       ECUADOR 1.47S 78.44W 
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BACKGROUND:    TUNGURAHUA ECUADOR (1502-08)
               SUMMIT HEIGHT 16480 FT (5023 M)
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SOURCES OF INFORMATION: USGS PERSONNEL AT THE GEOPHYSICAL INSTITUTE
IN QUITO...GOES-8 VISIBLE INFRARED AND MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY...
GUAYAQUIL METEOROLOGICAL WATCH OFFICE...U.S. NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS 
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ERUPTION DETAILS: PERIODIC MINIMAL TO MODERATE ERUPTIONS.
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DETAILS OF ASH: NO ASH CAN BE SEEN ON CURRENT GOES-8 SATELLITE
IMAGERY DUE TO ABUNDANT METEOROLOGICAL CLOUDS IN THE AREA. 
OBSERVERS IN THE AREA ALSO REPORT THAT THEY CANNOT SEE THE VOLCANO
SUMMIT DUE TO THE CLOUDINESS.  HOWEVER USGS PERSONNEL HAVE INDICATED
THAT SEISMIC ACTIVITY REMAINS SIMILAR TO THAT SEEN OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREFORE IT IS LIKELY THAT SOME INTERMITTENT
EMISSIONS OF ASH ARE STILL OCCURRING.  
     A SIGMET FROM THE GUAYAQUIL METEOROLOGICAL WATCH OFFICE ALSO
INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF ASH OF UNKNOWN HEIGHT.
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TRAJECTORY: NUMERICAL MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT ANY ASH AT THE
SUMMIT UP TO A LEVEL OF FL300 WOULD MOVE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20
KNOTS. 
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REAL TIME SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH THIS AND OTHER VOLCANIC ASH
ADVISORY STATEMENTS OFTEN ACCOMPANIED BY A MAP DEPICTING ASH
LOCATION ARE AVAILABLE AT INTERNET URL ADDRESS  
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/VAAC/washington.html
(all lower case except /VAAC/)
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OUTLOOK:  SEE SIGMETS.
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THE NEXT MESSAGE WILL BE ISSUED BY 21/0200 UTC.
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PLEASE REFER TO SIGMETS FOR CURRENT WARNINGS.
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