FVXX21 KWBC 311400
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VOLCANIC ASH ADVISORY STATEMENT 
ISSUED 1400 UTC 31 OCTOBER 1999 BY THE WASHINGTON VAAC 
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TUNGURAHUA 99-053      ECUADOR 1.47S 78.44W 
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BACKGROUND:    TUNGURAHUA ECUADOR (1502-08)
               SUMMIT HEIGHT 16480 FT (5023 M)
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SOURCES OF INFORMATION: GOES-8 VISIBLE INFRARED AND MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY...GEOPHYSICAL INSTITUTE IN QUITO...QUAYAQUIL MWO...NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE WEATHER MODEL DATA                  
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ERUPTION DETAILS: OCCASIONAL VENTING OF ASH AND STEAM.
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DETAILS OF ASH: EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER TUNGURAHUA DOES
NOT INDICATE ANY ASH. HOWEVER SURFACE REPORTS NEAR THE VOLCANO SITE
DO INDICATE ASH MOVING TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
SUMMIT. THE QUAYAQUIL MWO IS INDICATING THIS AS WELL AND SO EXTREME
CAUTION IS SUGGESTED. THERE ARE A RATHER LARGE AMOUNT OF
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS IN THE REGION AS WELL FROM NEARBY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE ASH IS CURRENTLY BELIEVED TO BE NEAR-SUMMIT AND NOT VERY THICK. SOME ASH MAY BE AS HIGH AS FL210 WHICH
WAS THE LAST REPORTED ASH CLOUD HEIGHT. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
BEHAVIOR OF THE VOLCANO OVER THE LAST TWO WEEKS.
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TRAJECTORY: FROM THE SUMMIT TO FL210 THE ASH SHOULD MOVE SOUTHWEST
AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH OBSERVED PLUMES LAST WEEK.
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REAL TIME SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH THIS AND OTHER VOLCANIC ASH
ADVISORY STATEMENTS OFTEN ACCOMPANIED BY A MAP DEPICTING ASH
LOCATION ARE AVAILABLE AT INTERNET URL ADDRESS  
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/VAAC/washington.html
(all lower case except /VAAC/)
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OUTLOOK:  SEE SIGMETS.
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THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 31/2000 UTC.
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PLEASE REFER TO SIGMETS FOR CURRENT WARNINGS.
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ORRISON
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NNNN