FVXX21 KWBC 122200 . VOLCANIC ASH ADVISORY ISSUED 2200 UTC 12 NOV 1999 BY THE WASHINGTON VAAC . TUNGURAHUA 99-110 ECUADOR 1.47S 78.44W . BACKGROUND: TUNGURAHUA ECUADOR (1502-08) SUMMIT HEIGHT 16480 FT (5023 M) . SOURCES OF INFORMATION: GOES-8 VISIBLE...INFRARED...AND MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY...U.S. NUMERICAL MODEL WINDS. . ERUPTION DETAILS: EXPLOSION AROUND 12/1500 UTC. . DETAILS OF ASH: ASH FROM THE 1500 UTC EXPLOSION CAN NOT BE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC. ONLY VERY FAINT ASH CAN BE SEEN IN MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AROUND AN TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUMMIT. THIS FAINT ASH IS ESTIMATED TO BE AT OR BELOW FL200. TUNGURAHUA REMAINS IN A VERY UNSTABLE STATE AND FURTHER EXPLOSIVE ERUPTIONS ARE LIKELY. . TRAJECTORY: UPPER AIR PATTERNS SUGGEST ANY ASH AT OR BELOW FL200 TO MOVE WEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. . REAL TIME SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH THIS AND OTHER VOLCANIC ASH ADVISORY STATEMENTS OFTEN ACCOMPANIED BY A MAP DEPICTING ASH LOCATION ARE AVAILABLE AT INTERNET URL ADDRESS http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/VAAC/washington.html (all lower case except /VAAC/) . OUTLOOK: SEE SIGMETS AND VAFTAD. . THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 13/0400. . PLEASE REFER TO SIGMETS FOR CURRENT WARNINGS. . HUGHES - NOAA/NESDIS/SAB . NNNN