FVXX22 KWBC 171923 VOLCANIC ASH ADVISORY ISSUED: 2003APR17/1930Z VAAC: WASHINGTON VOLCANO: GUAGUA PICHINCHA 1502-02 LOCATION: S0011W07836 AREA: ECUADOR SUMMIT ELEVATION: 15695 FT (4784 M) ADVISORY NUMBER: 2003/001 INFORMATION SOURCE: GUAYAQUIL MWO SIGMET. GEOPHYSICAL INSTITUTE. GFS MODEL WINDS FORECAST. ERUPTION DETAILS: SEISMIC SIGNALS AT 1830Z. OBS ASH DATE/TIME: NIL. OBS ASH CLOUD: ASH NOT IDENTIFIABLE FROM SATELLITE DATA. WINDS FL100/FL180 MOVING SW 5 KNOTS. FCST ASH CLOUD +6H: SEE SIGMETS. REMARKS: THE GEOPHYSICAL INSTITUTE HAS INDICATED THAT THERE ARE SEISMIC SIGNALS FOR AN ERUPTION OF GUAGUA PICHINCHA AT 1830Z. HOWEVER THE VOLCANOLOGIST ON DUTY INDICATED THAT THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY VISUAL SIGNS OF ASH AND THAT THE SEISMIC SIGNALS WOULD ONLY SUPPORT A VERY WEAK ERUPTION WHERE THE ASH WOULD MOST LIKELY NOT HAVE EVEN BEEN EXPELLED FROM THE SUMMIT RIM. THE GEOPHYSICAL INSTITUTE HAS INDICATED THAT THESE SIGNALS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING SPORADICALLY OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...MOST LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY STEAM AND OUT-GASSING. THIS MESSAGE IS A HEADS-UP TO INDICATE THAT GUAGUA HAS BEEN ACTIVE RECENTLY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ASH CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL BE THE LAST MESSAGE UNLESS A MORE SIGNIFICANT ERUPTION OCCURS OR ASH IS VISUALLY SEEN EITHER ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OR BY VOLCANOLOGISTS NEAR THE SUMMIT...GALLINA NEXT ADVISORY: NO FURTHER ADVISORIES NNNN