FVXX20 KNES 081045
VOLCANIC ASH ADVISORY
ISSUED: 20061208/1044Z   VAAC: WASHINGTON

VOLCANO: PAGAN 0804-17
LOCATION: N1807 E14548   AREA:
MARIANA.IS-C.PACIFIC

SUMMIT ELEVATION: 1870 FT (570 M)

ADVISORY NUMBER: 2006/015

INFORMATION SOURCE: MTSAT. GFS WINDS. 

ERUPTION DETAILS: ONGOING LOW LEVEL ASH EMISSIONS

OBS ASH DATE/TIME: 08/0633Z

OBS ASH CLOUD: SFC/FL030 4NM WIDE LINE BETWEEN
N1807 E14548 - N1800 E14513. ASH IS MOVING W
15-20 KNOTS. 

FCST ASH CLOUD +6H: 08/1230Z SFC/FL030 4NM WIDE
LINE BETWEEN N1806 E14548 - N1755 E14511. 

FCST ASH CLOUD +12H: 08/1830Z SFC/FL030 4NM WIDE
LINE BETWEEN N1806 E14547 - N1755 E14522. 

FCST ASH CLOUD +18H: 09/0030Z SFC/FL030 4NM WIDE
LINE BETWEEN N1802 E14508 - N1806 E14548. 

REMARKS: MULTISPECTRAL AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DO NOT SHOW THIS VERY LOW LEVEL ASH
PLUME.  IT CAN BE SEEN IN VISIBLE IMAGERY AND THE
LAST USABLE VISIBLE IMAGE OCCURRED AT 0633Z AND
IT WAS USED IN THE ANALYSIS OF THE PLUME.  A VERY
NARROW LOW LEVEL PLUME...SOME OF WHICH
INTERMITTENTLY BECOMES TOO FAINT TO SEE...EXTENDS
FROM THE VOLCANO TOWARD THE WEST SOUTHWEST. 
LITTLE CHANGE IN DIRECTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE
18 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. ...

NEXT ADVISORY: WILL BE ISSUED BY 20061208/1645Z

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