FVXX20 KNES 221148
VOLCANIC ASH ADVISORY
ISSUED: 20061022/1148Z   VAAC: WASHINGTON

VOLCANO: SOUFRIERE HILLS 1600-05
LOCATION: N1642 W06210   AREA: W_INDIES

SUMMIT ELEVATION: 3002 FT (915 M)

ADVISORY NUMBER: 2006/669

INFORMATION SOURCE: GOES-12. GFS WINDS. 

ERUPTION DETAILS: ASH AND GAS EMISSIONS.

OBS ASH DATE/TIME: 22/1115Z

OBS ASH CLOUD: SFC/FL090 N1758 W06310 - N1758
W06250 - N1707 W06238 - N1646 W06210 - N1639
W06212 - N1701 W06252 - N1758 W06310 MOVING NE
10-15 KNOTS. 

FCST ASH CLOUD +6H: 22/1730Z SFC/FL090 N1803
W06316 - N1802 W06254 - N1708 W06238 - N1644
W06210 - N1639 W06213 - N1701 W06253 - N1803
W06316 

FCST ASH CLOUD +12H: 22/2330Z SFC/FL090 N1707
W06334 - N1644 W06210 - N1638 W06210 - N1650
W06340 - N1707 W06334 

FCST ASH CLOUD +18H: 23/0530Z SFC/FL090 N1705
W06339 - N1644 W06210 - N1636 W06209 - N1647
W06341 - N1705 W06339 

REMARKS: SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 1115Z SHOWS A PLUME
OF ASH MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ACROSS ST
KITTS AND NEVIS AND THEN NORTH ACROSS ST.
BARTHELEMY AND ST. MARTIN.  ASH IS ESTIMATED TO
FL090 MOVING AT 10-15 KNOTS.  THE LATEST GFS
FORECAST INDICATES ASH CONTINUING TO MOVE IN THIS
DIRECTION DURING THE NEXT 06 HOURS BEFORE A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST. THE ASH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE AT +12 AND +18 HOURS IS LOW.  A WELL
DEFINED HOTSPOT IS SEEN IN MULTI-SPECTRAL
IMAGERY. ...KIBLER

NEXT ADVISORY: WILL BE ISSUED BY 20061022/1745Z

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