FVXX20 KWBC 100900
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VOLCANIC ASH ADVISORY STATEMENT
ISSUED 0900 UTC 10 NOV 1999 BY THE WASHINGTON VAAC 
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GUAGUA PICHINCHA 99-078 ECUADOR 0.17S 78.60W 
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BACKGROUND:    GUAGUA PICHINCHA ECUADOR (1502-02)
               SUMMIT HEIGHT    15695 FT (4784 M)  
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SOURCES OF INFORMATION:  GEOPHYSICAL INSTITUTE IN QUITO...INFRARED
AND MULTISPECTRAL GOES-8 SATELLITE IMAGERY...00 UTC AVIATION MODEL
WINDS...03 UTC SURFACE REPORT FROM QUITO/MARISCAL
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ERUPTION DETAILS: REPORTED EXPLOSIVE ERUPTION AT 10/0025 UTC.
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DETAILS OF ASH CLOUD: NO ASH IS VISIBLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
10/0815 UTC.  HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME LOW LEVEL METEOROLOGICAL CLOUDS
IN THE AREA WHICH MIGHT BE OBSCURING ASH.  THE O3Z METAR FROM SEQU
WHICH IS QUITO/MARISCAL REPORTED VOLCANIC ASH OVER THE STATION.
EARLIER TODAY THE GEOPHYSICAL INSTITUTE REPORTED ASH FALLING IN
NORTHERN QUITO. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO ASSIGN A HEIGHT TO THE ASH. 
BASED ON ASHFALL LOCATIONS AND UPPER AIR PATTERNS THE OBSERVED ASH
WAS PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED TO BE UP TO FL250.
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TRAJECTORY: UPPER AIR PATTERNS SUGGEST THAT ANY ASH BETWEEN FL320
AND FL220 WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OR EAST NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. 
ASH BETWEEN FL200 AND FL160 WILL MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AT LESS
THAN 5 KNOTS.  
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REAL TIME SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH THIS AND OTHER VOLCANIC ASH
ADVISORY STATEMENTS OFTEN ACCOMPANIED BY A MAP DEPICTING ASH
LOCATION ARE AVAILABLE AT INTERNET URL ADDRESS  
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/VAAC/washington.html
(all lower case except /VAAC/)
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OUTLOOK:  SEE SIGMETS
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THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 10/1500 UTC.
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PLEASE REFER TO SIGMETS FOR CURRENT WARNINGS.
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