FVXX22 KWBC 020915
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VOLCANIC ASH ADVISORY STATEMENT
ISSUED 0915 UTC 02 NOVEMBER 1999 BY THE WASHINGTON VAAC 
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SOUFRIERE HILLS 99-246    WEST INDIES 16.7N 62.2W  
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BACKGROUND:    SOUFRIERE HILLS MONTSERRAT (1600-05)
               SUMMIT HEIGHT 3000 FT (915M)
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SOURCES OF INFORMATION: MONTSERRAT VOLCANO OBSERVATORY...00 UTC
GUADELOUPE SOUNDING...GOES-8 INFRARED AND MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY...0000 UTC U.S. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AVIATION WEATHER
MODEL WIND DATA
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ERUPTION DETAILS: ERUPTION OCCURRED AT ABOUT 02/0815 UTC.
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DETAILS OF ASH CLOUD: THE MONTSERRAT VOLCANO OBSERVATORY REPORTS AN
ASH PRODUCING ERUPTION.  SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0845 UTC DOES NOT
SHOW ANY CLEAR INDICATION OF ASH. HOWEVER THERE IS A VERY FAINT AREA
OF POSSIBLE ASH NEAR AND JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE SUMMIT.  AT 0845 UTC
THIS AREA REMAINED WITHIN 8 KM (4 NMI) OF THE SUMMIT.  ITS SPEED AND
DIRECTION SUGGESTS THAT IF IT IS ASH IT IS BELOW FL150. 
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TRAJECTORY: UPPER AIR PATTERNS SUGGEST THAT ANY ASH BETWEEN FL080
AND FL150 WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.  ASH
BELOW FL080 WILL MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTH AT LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. 
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REAL TIME SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH THIS AND OTHER VOLCANIC ASH
ADVISORY STATEMENTS OFTEN ACCOMPANIED BY A MAP DEPICTING ASH
LOCATION ARE AVAILABLE AT INTERNET URL ADDRESS  
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/VAAC/washington.html
(all lower case except /VAAC/)
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OUTLOOK:  SEE SIGMETS.
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THE NEXT MESSAGE WILL BE ISSUED BY 02/1515 UTC.
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PLEASE REFER TO SIGMETS FOR CURRENT WARNINGS.
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