FVXX22 KWBC 020915 . VOLCANIC ASH ADVISORY STATEMENT ISSUED 0915 UTC 02 NOVEMBER 1999 BY THE WASHINGTON VAAC . SOUFRIERE HILLS 99-246 WEST INDIES 16.7N 62.2W . BACKGROUND: SOUFRIERE HILLS MONTSERRAT (1600-05) SUMMIT HEIGHT 3000 FT (915M) . SOURCES OF INFORMATION: MONTSERRAT VOLCANO OBSERVATORY...00 UTC GUADELOUPE SOUNDING...GOES-8 INFRARED AND MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY...0000 UTC U.S. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AVIATION WEATHER MODEL WIND DATA . ERUPTION DETAILS: ERUPTION OCCURRED AT ABOUT 02/0815 UTC. . DETAILS OF ASH CLOUD: THE MONTSERRAT VOLCANO OBSERVATORY REPORTS AN ASH PRODUCING ERUPTION. SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0845 UTC DOES NOT SHOW ANY CLEAR INDICATION OF ASH. HOWEVER THERE IS A VERY FAINT AREA OF POSSIBLE ASH NEAR AND JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE SUMMIT. AT 0845 UTC THIS AREA REMAINED WITHIN 8 KM (4 NMI) OF THE SUMMIT. ITS SPEED AND DIRECTION SUGGESTS THAT IF IT IS ASH IT IS BELOW FL150. . TRAJECTORY: UPPER AIR PATTERNS SUGGEST THAT ANY ASH BETWEEN FL080 AND FL150 WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. ASH BELOW FL080 WILL MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTH AT LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. . REAL TIME SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH THIS AND OTHER VOLCANIC ASH ADVISORY STATEMENTS OFTEN ACCOMPANIED BY A MAP DEPICTING ASH LOCATION ARE AVAILABLE AT INTERNET URL ADDRESS http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/VAAC/washington.html (all lower case except /VAAC/) . OUTLOOK: SEE SIGMETS. . THE NEXT MESSAGE WILL BE ISSUED BY 02/1515 UTC. . PLEASE REFER TO SIGMETS FOR CURRENT WARNINGS. . NNNN