FVXX21 KWBC 191715 . VOLCANIC ASH ADVISORY STATEMENT ISSUED 1715 UTC 19 OCTOBER 1999 BY THE WASHINGTON VAAC . TUNGURAHUA 99-005 ECUADOR 1.47S 78.44W . BACKGROUND: TUNGURAHUA ECUADOR (1502-08) SUMMIT HEIGHT 16480 FT (5023 M) . SOURCES OF INFORMATION: GOES-8 VISIBLE...INFRARED...AND MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY...SIGMET FROM GUAYAQUIL AND THE GEOPHYSICAL INSTITUE IN QUITO. NCEP AVN MODEL WINDS. . ERUPTION DETAILS: ERUPTION OCCURED AT 19/1044 UTC TO FL250. . DETAILS OF ASH: THE GEOPHYSICAL INSTITUTE IN QUITO REPORTS THAT TUNGURAHUA REMAINS IN AN ACTIVE STATE WITH PERIODIC ERUPTIONS OF ASH AND STEAM. HOWEVER CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES NOT INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF ASH DUE TO CLOUD COVER. THERE IS A HINT OF POSSIBLE ASH TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF TUNGURAHUA IN THE GOES-8 SPLIT WINDOW AND 3 CHANNEL INFRARED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY...BUT THIS MAY BE NOISE DUE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA. . TRAJECTORY: UPPER AIR PATTERNS RUN FROM THE 19/0000 UTC NCEP AVN MODEL AT 19/1800 UTC SUGGEST ANY ASH AT OR BELOW FL250 TO MOVE WEST SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. . REAL TIME SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH THIS AND OTHER VOLCANIC ASH ADVISORY STATEMENTS OFTEN ACCOMPANIED BY A MAP DEPICTING ASH LOCATION ARE AVAILABLE AT INTERNET URL ADDRESS http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/VAAC/washington.html (all lower case except /VAAC/) . OUTLOOK: SEE SIGMETS. . THIS WILL BE THE LAST WARNING FOR THIS EVENT. BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT STATUS OF TUNGURAHUA...A WATCH VAAS WILL BE ISSUED AT 20/2000 UTC. . HUGHES/NOAA/NESDIS/SAB . PLEASE REFER TO SIGMETS FOR CURRENT WARNINGS. . NNNN