FVXX21 KWBC 210200 . VOLCANIC ASH ADVISORY STATEMENT ISSUED 0200 UTC 21 OCTOBER 1999 BY THE WASHINGTON VAAC . TUNGURAHUA 99-011 ECUADOR 1.47S 78.44W . BACKGROUND: TUNGURAHUA ECUADOR (1502-08) SUMMIT HEIGHT 16480 FT (5023 M) . SOURCES OF INFORMATION: USGS PERSONNEL AT THE GEOPHYSICAL INSTITUTE IN QUITO...GOES-8 VISIBLE INFRARED AND MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY... GUAYAQUIL METEOROLOGICAL WATCH OFFICE...U.S. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS . ERUPTION DETAILS: PERIODIC MINIMAL TO MODERATE ERUPTIONS. . DETAILS OF ASH: NO ASH CAN BE SEEN ON CURRENT GOES-8 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CLOUDINESS FROM DYING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSCURING THE ANALYSIS OF THE VOLCANO SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER THE USGS PERSONNEL EARLIER INDICATED THAT SEISMIC ACTIVITY REMAINS SIMILAR TO THAT SEEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION A PILOT REPORT RECEIVED BY THE METEOROLOGICAL WATCH OFFICE THIS EVENING INDICATED THAT THERE WAS SOME ASH TO FL230 NEAR THE VOLCANO. . TRAJECTORY: NUMERICAL MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT ANY ASH AT THE SUMMIT UP TO A LEVEL OF FL230 WOULD MOVE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS. . REAL TIME SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH THIS AND OTHER VOLCANIC ASH ADVISORY STATEMENTS OFTEN ACCOMPANIED BY A MAP DEPICTING ASH LOCATION ARE AVAILABLE AT INTERNET URL ADDRESS http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/VAAC/washington.html (all lower case except /VAAC/) . OUTLOOK: SEE SIGMETS. . THE NEXT MESSAGE WILL BE ISSUED BY 21/0800 UTC. . PLEASE REFER TO SIGMETS FOR CURRENT WARNINGS. . NNNN