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Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Guidance Product

Developed by the Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch at CIRA

Cooperative Research Program | Office of Research and Applications/Center for Satellite Applications and Research


Atlantic Basin

Cumulative 0-48h TC Formation Probability

Real-Time Climatological Anomaly
0-48h TCFP (%)

TC Formation Probability

Real-Time Climatological Anomaly
0-24h TCFP(%)
24-48h TCFP (%)

Input Parameters

Real-Time Climatological Anomaly
850 hPa Relative Vorticity (x10-6 s-1) 0-24h
850 hPa Relative Vorticity (x10-6 s-1) 24-48h
Percent Pixels Colder than -40°C 0-24h
Percent Pixels Colder than -40°C 24-48h
850-200 hPa Vertical Shear (kt) 0-24h
850-200 hPa Vertical Shear (kt) 24-48h
Vertical Instability (°C) 0-24h
Vertical Instability (°C) 24-48h
Cloud-cleared Water Vapor Brightness Temperature (°C) 0-24h
Cloud-cleared Water Vapor Brightness Temperature (°C) 24-48h
850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-6 s-1) 0-24h
850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-6 s-1) 24-48h
MSLP (hPa) 0-24h
MSLP (hPa) 24-48h
Reynolds SST (°C) 0-24h
Reynolds SST (°C) 24-48h
850 hPa Horizontal Temp Advection (x10-6 °C s-1) 0-24h
850 hPa Horizontal Temp Advection (x10-6 °C s-1) 24-48h

Subbasin Areas

Time Series Products on Subbasins

  0-48h TC Formation Probability 850 hPa Relative Vorticity Percent WV Pixels < -40°C 850-200 hPa Vertical Shear Vertical Instability Cloud-cleared WV Brightness Temperature 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-6 s-1) MSLP Reynolds SST 850 hPa Horizontal Temp Advection
Gulf of Mexico
Caribbean
East Coast
Tropical Atlantic
Sub-tropical Atlantic
Southern Atlantic

 


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