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Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Product

Developed by the
Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch at CIRA

Current Products Last Updated 2008 MAY 09 12 UTC

Real-Time

  

Climatological

Anomaly
Probability of TC Formation within 24Hrs
Genesis threshold > 0%
     
850 hPa Circulation (kt)
Genesis threshold > -5kt
      
Percent Pixels Colder than -40°C
Genesis threshold > 0%
      
850-200 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
Genesis threshold < 65kt
      
Vertical Instability (°C)
Genesis threshold > -8°C
      
Cloud-cleared Water Vapor Brightness Temperature (°C)
Genesis threshold < -23°C
      
             
 
 
 
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Time Series Products on Sub-basins
   
Sub-basin Areas
   
 
Formation Probability
850 hPa Circulation
Percent GOES Pixels < -40°C
850-200 hPa Vertical Shear
Vertical Instability
Cloud-cleared GOES Brightness Temperature
Tropical Atlantic
Western Caribbean
Eastern Caribbean
Gulf of Mexico
East Coast
Sub-tropical Atlantic
East Pacific (W of 110°w)
East Pacific (E of 110°w)
 
Formation Probability
850 hPa Circulation
Percent GOES Pixels < -40°C
850-200 hPa Vertical Shear
Vertical Instability
Cloud-cleared GOES Brightness Temperature

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