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Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Guidance Product

Developed by the Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch at CIRA

Cooperative Research Program | Office of Research and Applications/Center for Satellite Applications and Research


Atlantic Basin

 

Products Last Updated 2013 APR 23 06UTC

96-Hour Loop of Real-time Formation Probability

Real-Time Climatological Anomaly
Probability of TC Formation within 24 Hours
850 hPa Circulation (kt) TC Formation Threshold
> -2.91kt
Percent Pixels Colder than -40°C TC Formation Threshold
> 1.8%
850-200 hPa Vertical Shear (kt) TC Formation Threshold
< 48.7kt
Vertical Instability (°C) TC Formation Threshold
> -2.57°C
Cloud-cleared Water Vapor Brightness Temperature (°C) TC Formation Threshold
< -25.4°C
850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-5 s-1) TC Formation Threshold
< 0.941
MSLP (hPa)
Reynolds SST (°C)

Subbasin Areas

Time Series Products on Subbasins

  TC Formation Probability 850 hPa Circulation Percent WV Pixels < -40°C 850-200 hPa Vertical Shear Vertical Instability Cloud-cleared WV Brightness Temperature 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-5 s-1) MSLP Anom Reynolds SST
Gulf of Mexico
Caribbean
East Coast
Tropical Atlantic
Sub-tropical Atlantic
Southern Atlantic

 


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